Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Canada GDP by industry, May 2026
What will Statistics Canada first report as the month-over-month percent change in seasonally adjusted real gross domestic product by industry, all industries, at basic prices, for May 2026?
current forecast · 80% CI+0.1%
-0.2%+0.1%+0.4%
history:2025-12 first print: +0.2%2026-01 first print: +0.1%2026-02 first print: +0.2%2026-03 first print: -0.1%2026-04 first print: +0.5%2026-05 advance estimate: +0.1%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-04T21:32:02Z
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- +0.3%
- forecast
- +0.1% with 80% CI [-0.2%, +0.4%]
- error
- +0.2% · absolute +0.2%
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.12 · PIT 0.77
- source
- Statistics Canada GDP by industry, Table 36-10-0434-01 (all industries, chained 2017 dollars, SA at annual rates)
First print for 2026-05 captured from https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/wds/rest/getDataFromVectorsAndLatestNPeriods on the official release date named by the cell's resolver.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 4, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- statcan.36-10-0434-01.all_industries.month_to_month_percent_change.2026-05.first_print
Key drivers
- Statistics Canada advance estimate points to 0.1 percent May growth
- April's 0.5 percent rebound creates some payback risk
- Finance and insurance and real estate support modest growth
- Wholesale trade and agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting are cited offsets
- Recent first prints remain centered around low positive growth
Resolution
- source
- Statistics Canada The Daily release and Table 36-10-0434-01
- resolved
- July 31, 2026
- actual
- +0.3%
- rule
- Resolve to the first Statistics Canada publication for May 2026 seasonally adjusted real GDP by industry, all industries, month-to-month percent change, rounded to one decimal percentage point. Use the first value published in the July 31, 2026 The Daily release and Table 36-10-0434-01; if the Daily text and table disagree at first publication, use the table value for all industries month-to-month percent change. Ignore later revisions.
- Data point
- statcan.36-10-0434-01.all_industries.month_to_month_percent_change.2026-05.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
§
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.